Fifty-fifty, Fetterman and filibuster: What could a split Senate look like?

WASHINGTON — Democrats believe they can flip the Senate and control 51 votes or more, and their confidence has only grown in the final week before the midterms. But senators in both parties are privately bracing for another possible scenario: a 50-50 split that would give the upper hand to Republicans while causing headaches for everyone. Thanks to the tie-breaking vote of Vice President JD Vance, the GOP would still have the final word on the floor. That leaves everything else to figure out, including how power is balanced on committees. In the past, the two parties have hammered out agreements to address those tricky questions. None of those, however, were under a president like Donald Trump. As with most things in Washington these days, Trump is the “wild card here,” said Steven S. Smith, a professor at Arizona State University who has written extensively about the Senate. He “seems to be able to pull the strings of at least some Senate Republicans in a way that President George W. Bush could not, and he might insist on some other arrangement that prevents the Senate from agreeing to a formal ceasefire and power-sharing arrangement as they did in 2001,” Smith said. At the helm f or Democrats back then was Tom Daschle of South Dakota, who called the period “history making.” Control of the Senate may have flipped three times within seven months, but the agreement he created with GOP leader Trent Lott left an enduring mark, inspiring a similar blueprint forged by Democratic leader Charles E. Schumer and GOP leader Mitch McConnell in 2021. It provided both sides with equal committee membership and budget and staff resources, while also creating a special discharge procedure to advance legislation or nominees from a deadlocked committee. Asked this week about any future power-sharing agreement, a Senate Republican aide didn’t guarantee it would be identical to the one in 2021, citing shifting precedents. And Daschle predicted Trump would pressure Republicans not to give any ground in negotiations. “If there’s a 50-50 Senate, you’ll see him try just about every trick in the book to ensure that somehow his party can be successful.” Smith agreed. “Conditions have changed,” he said. “And of course the Republicans are going to be plenty peeved if a tie 50-50 Senate is the outcome, because likely they will have just lost the House and will be arguing to themselves an yway that retaining firm control of the Senate is absolutely essential.” Whatever happens, it may be hard to beat the rollercoaster that was 2001 — though it offers some valuable lessons on how to court independents, Daschle said. The volatile period started with Democratic Vice President Al Gore having the tie-breaking vote, shifted in favor of Republicans when Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney were inaugurated on Jan. 20, and veered back months later when Republican Sen. Jim Jeffords of Vermont left the GOP to become an independent to caucus with Democrats, returning Daschle to the helm of the Senate. Daschle described “extensively” working Jeffords to get him to flip. “Harry Reid started the conversation, and Chris Dodd weighed in. It took several weeks, but we convinced him that it was in his interests and Vermont’s interests, and ultimately it worked.” He also described earlier conversations with Sen. John McCain, saying he believes the Arizona Republican was “very close to making the change” though it never came to fruition. Now senators of both parties are eyeing someone who could wield outsize power in a 50-50 or 51-49 scenario: Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. John Fetterman . “He’s going to be a thorn in the side of the Democrats, whatever he does. There’s no doubt about that,” Smith said. “He’s a wild card. It’s almost always the case that when the Senate (could be) 50-50, that each party begins to look for someone in the other party for assistance.” Speculation about his future has become frequent on Capitol Hill — and a sore topic of conversation for Fetterman. He told reporters in September: “I’m not going to be a Republican!… If I turn a Republican, then I’ll be a liar.” Christian Grose, professor of political science and public policy at the University of Southern California, said there is “almost certainly some backroom jockeying” happening to get Fetterman to become an independent and caucus with Republicans, or to flip outright. Gợi ý thực hành: 1. Theo dõi thông báo từ cơ quan địa phương tại California. 2. Kiểm tra nguồn chính thức trước khi chia sẻ lại thông tin.