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A majority of likely voters say they’ll support a ballot measure levying a one-time, 5% tax on the state’s billionaires in November, but two initiatives designed to invalidate the tax are also polling favorably, according to a new independent poll released this week.
Proposition 40, which was proposed by SEIU United Healthcare Workers West as a way to fill massive funding gaps triggered by President Donald Trump’s cuts to Medicaid, has the support of 52% of likely voters in the latest survey from the Public Policy Institute of California, a nonpartisan research group in San Francisco.
It found 42% of likely voters said they’d oppose the measure and 2% were undecided. The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office projects it will raise “tens of billions” for healthcare and food assistance in the next several years.
Critics, including Gov. Gavin Newsom and the Democratic and Republican candidates running to succeed him, say it will drive wealthy taxpayers to other states and hurt California’s economy.
But the success of Prop. 40 hinges on not just its ability to get majority support — it also must surpass the number of yes votes Propositions 41 and 42 receive if either of those measur es also pass.
Prop. 41, which the poll found was supported by 51% of likely voters, would require the state auditor to review proposed special taxes before they’re placed on the ballot and invalidate taxes that don’t comply with the state spending limit.
Prop. 42 would prohibit new state personal property taxes, including those on retirement accounts and assets.
It had support from 54% of likely voters in the PPIC poll. Both measures are supported by Building a Better California, a new group with major funding from Google co-founder Sergey Brin .
“The supporters of Prop. 40 have to think about and perhaps do something about the fact that so many people are supporting 41 and 42,” Mark Baldassare, PPIC’s statewide survey director, said in an interview.
“Therein lies the problem when you have measures and countermeasures on the ballot.” The PPIC surveyed 1,103 likely voters between Sept. 4 and 10 about all 14 statewide measures on the November ballot and had a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.
Prop. 45, which would overhaul California’s landmark environmental review law, saw a decrease in support since the organization last polled about it in July, though the question used to poll voters changed and included additional information about the measure.
The initiative would amend the California Environmental Quality Act by setting a 365-day limit on environmental review for projects like new reservoirs, desalination plants, housing subdivisions, bridges, solar farms and battery storage facilities.
The measure would also require courts to make a decision within 270 days on any lawsuits filed under CEQA. The July poll showed the yes side had a commanding lead with the support of 73% of likely voters.
The latest poll, however, showed just 49% of voters support the initiative — below the simple majority threshold it would need to pass. Baldassare said that when they last polled about the measure they only had the title and the partial summary of the initiative.
When they asked likely voters about Prop. 45 this time, they also noted the fiscal impacts — high tens of millions of dollars and potential exceeding $100 million — and the supporters and opponents.
The measure is being backed by the California Children’s Hospital Association, the California Water Association and the California Council for Affordable Housing and is opposed by the Coalition for Clean Air, California Environmental Voters and the National Wildlife Federation.
“I have to think that the placement on the ballot and the full description of the ballot label that provides supporters and opponents has really factored into the divided nature of support for Prop. 45 now,” Baldassare said.
The survey director also said the results could have been influenced by recent arguments from the opposition that raise concerns about the environmental impacts of some of the developments.
Several other measures polled also failed to register above 50% support — the threshold they’ll need to succeed on Election Day — including Prop. 39 and Prop.
43. Prop.
39, which would implement voter ID in future elections , saw 43% support in the poll, with 85% of Republicans supporting the measure compared to 19% of Democrats.
The initiative is backed by Reform California, a statewide organization led by state Assemblymember Carl DeMaio, a San Diego Republican, and is opposed by the California Democratic Party and Democratic Party officials including U.S. Sen.
Alex Padilla and former Health Secretary and gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra. Prop.
43, which would raise the threshold from a simple maj ority to two-thirds to pass special taxes placed on the ballot through the citizens’ initiative process , saw 43% support from likely voters.
The survey also found that all three bond measures on the ballot are polling favorably with majority support. Prop.
1, which would authorize $11.25 billion in bonds for various housing affordability programs, had the support of 55% of likely voters. Prop.
37, which would approve $25 billion in bonds to offer middle-income homebuyers fixed-rate mortgages for up to 17% of the purchase price for a newly constructed home, had the support of 61% of likely voters. And Prop.
38, which would authorize $8.4 billion for immunology and immunotherapy research, had the support of 55% of likely voters. “I think it tells you something about how people are responding to the requests to spend more money that won’t impact their taxes, at least initially,” Baldassare said.
“Especially the two housing bonds — Prop. 1 and Prop.
37 — getting the support that they do right away is noteworthy particularly since housing and affordability is such a big issue in California today.” The PPIC poll also surveyed voters on whether they thought there were too many measures o n the ballot — 77% of likely voters said they either strongly or somewhat agreed — and the governor’s race.
Becerra, a Democrat, continues to have the majority support of voters, with 60% of likely voters saying they’d vote for him in the most recent poll.
Former Fox News host Steve Hilton, a Republican, received 38% support, while 1% each said they wouldn’t vote for either or didn’t know who they’d vote for.
Gợi ý thực hành:
1. Theo dõi thông báo từ cơ quan địa phương tại California.
2. Kiểm tra nguồn chính thức trước khi chia sẻ lại thông tin.